Government initiated lockdowns have heavily impacted consumer demand for trades and services* during lockdown periods in 2020 and 2021 with early analysis of the Sydney lockdown included at the bottom of this email. The data below is based on over 300,000 jobs submitted on tradie website ServiceSeeking.com.au. The biggest declines in demand generally occur in the first week or two of lockdown periods, and recover as the lockdown continues. We have also noticed post-lockdown surges, where demand exceeds pre-lockdown levels for a short period of time, making up some, but not all of the losses.
Initial National Response (mid-March to mid-May 2020)
The first lockdown was the initial National response to the COVID-19 pandemic for the 8 week period between mid-March and mid-May 2020. Restrictions were applied nationally and included the suspension of all “non-essential” work.
Demand for trades and services fell by 21 percent during the 8 week lockdown period vs the prior period
The biggest decline was in the second week of lockdown where demand fell by 40 percent. In the 8 weeks immediately after restrictions were eased, demand increased to 5 percent above pre-lockdown levels making up some of the losses
Over the 24 weeks from mid-March to mid-August, consumer demand was 5% below expectation.
Melbourne Lockdown (August & Sept 2020)
The second lockdown studied was the lockdown in Victoria during August and September 2020.
Demand for trades and services fell by 32 percent during the lockdown period vs the prior period. The biggest decline was in the first week of lockdown where demand fell by 40 percent. In the 8 weeks immediately after restrictions were eased, demand increased to 22% above pre-lockdown levels making up most of the lost demand.
Over the 24 weeks between mid-March and mid-August, consumer demand in Victoria was 3% below expectations.
Melbourne lockdown (May/June 2021)
The third lockdown studied was the lockdown in Melbourne at the end of May and into June 2021
Demand for trades and services fell by 24 percent during the lockdown period vs the prior average.
The peak decline was 34 percent in the first week of June.
Demand has yet to recover to pre-lockdown levels in the 3 weeks after restrictions have eased.
Sydney Lockdown (June/July 2021)
The final lockdown, which is still playing out, is the Sydney lockdown starting in the last week of June 2021.
Demand for trades and services is down by 11 percent vs the prior average.
In the second week of lockdown, demand is down by 15%
*demand for trades & services from jobs listed on ServiceSeeking.com.au